Philip E. Tetlock (4 knihy)

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  Dan Gardner, Philip E. Tetlock Superforecasting EN

  Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was…

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  Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner Superforecasting EN

  Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at…

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  Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner Superforecasting EN

  What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock…

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  Philip E. Tetlock Superprognózy CZ

  Bestseller podle New York Times. Best Book of 2015 podle The Economist. Z lepšího nahlížení do budoucnosti by měl prospěch každý, ať už jde o nákup akcií, sestavování politických opatření, uvádění nového produktu na trh, nebo jen plánování jídelníčku na týden dopředu. Lidé však obecně předpovídají budoucnost velice špatně. Kniha Superprognózy od jednoho z nejuznávanějších sociologů na světě je průlomovým dílem…

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